Oscars Predictions 2025: State of the Race After ‘A Complete Unknown’ Drops and the Weekend of ‘Glick-ed’

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:

OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS

2025 Oscars Predictions: All Categories

Emilia Pérez. Karla Sofía Gascón as Manitas before Emilia Pérez’s transition in Emilia Pérez
Courtesy of PAGE 114 – WHY NOT PRODUCTIONS – PATHÉ FILMS – FRANCE 2 CINÉMA © 2024.

Weekly Commentary (Updated Nov. 21, 2024): The first reactions to Timothée Chalamet’s transformative performance in James Mangold’s “A Complete Unknown” have arrived, and it’s clear we have a major best actor contender entering the race. Chalamet’s portrayal of Bob Dylan is already hailed as a career-defining turn, showcasing the actor’s ability to blend musicality and emotional depth. The buzz positions him as a formidable challenger in a competitive field that includes heavyweights like Ralph Fiennes (“Conclave”), Adrien Brody (“The Brutalist”) and Colman Domingo (“Sing Sing”).

This weekend also marks the highly anticipated theatrical releases of Ridley Scott’s “Gladiator II” and Jon M. Chu’s “Wicked,” two films poised to dominate the awards conversation. Both have built significant momentum, with “Gladiator II” expected to flex its muscle in technical categories, notably sound and visual effects, while delivering a solid acting shot for Denzel Washington in the supporting actor race, which would mark his third win.

This week’s most significant shift in the Oscar landscape comes from “Wicked,” which has soared to the top of several key categories, including best picture and supporting actress. Could this beloved musical adaptation, led by Cynthia Erivo as Elphaba and Ariana Grande as Glinda, become the first musical since “Chicago” (2002) to win best picture? Its dazzling visuals, heartfelt performances, and nostalgic appeal give it a decisive edge in a season crowded with heavy dramas and action-packed epics. And then there’s also “The Trump Effect” worth considering.

Read: You can see all Academy Award predictions in all 23 categories on one page on the Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars.

The latest updates to the Oscar predictions are below.

Top 4 projected nomination leaders (films): “Wicked” (12); “Gladiator II” (8); “The Brutalist,” “Conclave” and “Emilia Pérez” (7); “Dune: Part Two” and “A Complete Unknown” (6)

Top 4 projected nomination leaders (studios): Netflix (15); Universal Pictures (12); A24 and Focus Features (11); Paramount Pictures (9)

The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited artisans are not final and are subject to change.

*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)

Fuente

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR