Oscars 2025: Updated Predictions With the Rise of ‘Conclave’ and ‘Gladiator II’ Landing

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS

2025 Oscars Predictions: All Categories

(L to R) Director Edward Berger and actor Ralph Fiennes on the set of CONCLAVE, a Focus Features release. Credit: Philippe Antonello/Focus Features ©2024 All Rights Reserved.
Philippe Antonello/Focus Feature

Weekly Commentary (Updated Oct. 24, 2024): Ridley Scott’s highly anticipated blockbuster sequel, “Gladiator II,” made an impressive debut with its first screening in Los Angeles, shown to an audience of AMPAS and SAG voters. The screening has instantly thrust the Paramount Pictures epic into the Oscar conversation, with the film positioned as a strong contender in several categories. Notably, Denzel Washington, a two-time Academy Award winner, has emerged as a potential best supporting actor nominee. Washington could secure his third Oscar if he wins, further solidifying his place among Hollywood’s elite.

Paramount Pictures had an exceptional week overall. Their acquired drama “September 5” won the Audience Award at the Middleburg Film Festival, tying with Focus Features’ religious thriller “Conclave.” For “Conclave,” this marks its second Audience Award win, following a previous win at the Mill Valley Film Festival, confirming the film’s broad appeal and crowd-pleasing nature.

The success of “September 5” at Middleburg is particularly significant, as the festival’s audience often skews older, making it a valuable indicator of how the film might perform with more mature viewers. The strong reception from this demographic suggests the film could perform well with general audiences as it moves forward in its release and potential awards season campaign.

Read: You can see all Academy Award predictions in all 23 categories on one page on the Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars.

While at the Middleburg Film Festival, I also observed the varied responses to other festival darlings like Brady Corbet’s 215-minute historical epic “The Brutalist” and Jacques Audiard’s crime musical “Emilia Perez.” Some attendees shared some varied and some mixed reactions. “Emilia Perez,” distributed by Netflix, notably missed out on taking home the international feature audience prize awarded to Neon’s “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” from Mohammad Rasoulof. The loss could be a warning sign for “Emilia Perez” or indicate a more challenging road ahead regarding stabilizing awards season buzz. Netflix will likely require continued screenings and support from its admirers to build momentum as it seeks to establish a stronger foothold in the competitive international film market.

Paramount’s strong performance with films like “Gladiator II” and “September 5” positions the studio (currently going through a highly publicized transition) as a major player in the upcoming awards season. As these films gain traction, audiences, and industry insiders should watch their progress as potential award-winning titles. For moviegoers, these films offer a glimpse into some of the year’s most exciting and critically acclaimed projects.

The latest updates to the Oscar predictions are below. You’ll find some increased potential noms for Denis Villeneuve’s “Dune: Part Two” and Berger’s “Conclave.” But there is still a long way to go. Next is the SCAD Savannah Film Festival, where “Blitz,” “The Piano Lesson,” and the big animated feature contenders will try to charm the southern crowd.

Top 4 projected nomination leaders (films): “Gladiator II” (11); “Emilia Pérez” (10); “The Brutalist” and “Dune: Part Two” (9); “Conclave” (8)

Top 4 projected nomination leaders (studios): Netflix (17); A24 and Paramount Pictures (12); Focus Features (11); Warner Bros. (9); Sony Pictures Classics (7)

The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited artisans are not final and are subject to change.

*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)

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