¿India en el Top 2? Predicción de la tabla de puntos del WTC 2023-25 después de las pruebas del Boxing Day

La final del Campeonato Mundial de Pruebas (WTC) se jugará en el icónico Lord’s Cricket Ground a partir del 16 de junio de 2025.

The Boxing Day Tests are set to provide cricket fans with thrilling contests, historical backdrops, and decisive moments that could shape the trajectory of the World Test Championship (WTC) 2023-25 cycle. With India clashing against Australia at the iconic Melbourne Cricket Ground (MCG) and South Africa taking on Pakistan in Centurion, the outcomes of these games could really alter the WTC standings. Here’s a prediction of how things might pan out if India and South Africa emerge victorious in their respective matches.

WTC points table: The Current Scenario

WTC 2023-25 Points Table

Rank	Team	Played	Won	Draw	Lost	Penalties	Points	% Points
1	South Africa	10	6	1	3	0	76	63.33
2	Australia	15	9	2	4	-10	106	58.89
3	India	17	9	2	6	-2	114	55.88
4	New Zealand	14	7	0	7	-3	81	48.21
5	Sri Lanka	11	5	0	6	0	60	45.45
6	England	22	11	1	10	-22	114	43.18
7	Pakistan	10	4	0	6	-8	40	33.33
8	Bangladesh	12	4	0	8	-3	45	31.25
9	West Indies	11	2	2	7	0	32	24.24

(as of December 25, 2024)

As things stand, South Africa lead the WTC points table with a 63.33% points percentage, followed by India at 55.88%. Both teams have an opportunity to enhance their standings, while Australia, currently second, will be desperate to retain their spot in top two. Pakistan, though mathematically in contention, will need a series of miracles to leapfrog the other three teams. Their probability of qualifying for the WTC Final is literally almost zero.

What if India and South Africa win Boxing Day Tests?

Victory for both India and South Africa in their Boxing Day Tests will result in the following WTC standings:

South Africa: Played 11, Won 7, Drawn 1, Lost 3, Points 88, Points Percentage 66.67%
India: Played 18, Won 10, Drawn 2, Lost 6, Points 126, Points Percentage 58.33%
Australia: Slips further behind with a reduced percentage.

India’s rise to second place in this scenario will come at the expense of Australia, whose points percentage will dip, making their qualification route more precarious. South Africa’s commanding position at the top will further cement their claim as favourites to play at Lord’s in 2025.

WTC Points table if India beat Australia at MCG & SA beat PAK in Centurion

Rank	Team	Played	Won	Draw	Lost	Penalties	Points	% Points
1	South Africa	11	7	1	3	0	88	66.67
2	India	18	10	2	6	-2	126	58.33
3	Australia	16	9	2	5	-10	106	55.21
4	New Zealand	14	7	0	7	-3	81	48.21
5	Sri Lanka	11	5	0	6	0	60	45.45
6	England	22	11	1	10	-22	114	43.18
7	Bangladesh	12	4	0	8	-3	45	31.25
8	Pakistan	11	4	0	7	-8	40	30.3
9	West Indies	11	2	2	7	0	32	24.24

Also, Pakistan’s loss at Centurion will shut their doors for WTC Final qualification, finally. If India and South Africa secure victories, they will not only tighten their grip on the top two spots but also make Australia’s path to the WTC Final significantly harder. For India, staying in the top two will require them to play their best cricket. Despite Australia being a better side in the ongoing BGT, things can take a massive turn in favour of India. A loss in Melbourne will put a massive dent on India’s chances.

India’s WTC Final Qualification after Boxing Day Tests

If Result is	Qualification scenario
Australia and South Africa win or Australia and Pakistan win	India remains at 3rd (go from 55.88% to 52.78%)
India and South Africa win or India win and South Africa vs Pakistan ends in draw	*India moves up to 2nd* (go from 55.88% to 58.33%)
India and Pakistan win	*India moves up to 1st*, South Africa 2nd, and Australia 3rd (go from 55.88% to 58.33%)
Australia win and South Africa vs Pakistan ends in draw	India remains at 3rd, Australia 1st, and South Africa 2nd (go from 55.88% to 52.78%)
Both matches end in draw	India remains at 3rd (go from 55.88% to 54.78%)