2025 NCAA tournament picks: Predictions, odds, lines, schedule for every March Madness 1st-round game

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March Madness is upon us. Upsets, dominance, game-winners and folk heroes are the names of the game during tourney time. It’s time to fill out your brackets and ride the wave to the national title game April 7.

Here are picks for every first-round NCAA tournament game, except those involving the First Four teams. We’ll update those when the games are played and the matchups are decided.

All times Eastern

No. 8 Louisville (-2.5) over No. 9 Creighton, 12:15 p.m. Thursday

The first game of the first round Thursday is a good one. Louisville seems very under-seeded, but that’s part of playing in a bad ACC. Still, since Dec. 14 the Cardinals are 21-2 and one of the losses came to Duke in the ACC tournament. Creighton has been a very good team too, and 7-foot-1 Ryan Kalkbrenner will be a problem for the Cardinals. But I won’t hold it against Louisville that the ACC was down. The Cards advance.

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Yale has become the Ivy’s best program, and this season it dominated the league. Yale was 16-1 after Dec. 22. Texas A&M is a good team, but it lives off offensive rebounding (the best offensive rebounding percentage in the nation), and yet Yale is pretty good on the defensive boards. The Ivy League has been pretty good in the first round of the NCAA tournament, going 9-6 against the spread over the past 15 tournaments (per Matt Eisenberg’s Tournament Binder). Texas A&M could make a run into the second weekend, but this one isn’t going to be easy.

2025 NCAA tournament picks: Predictions, odds, lines, schedule for every March Madness 1st-round game

Big Ten champion Michigan is facing a tough matchup against UC San Diego. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

No. 5 Michigan (-2.5) over No. 12 UC San Diego, 10 p.m. Thursday

Ah, the 5 vs. 12 game. We all know by now this is where upsets come from, and UC San Diego is a dangerous 12 seed. KenPom.com had San Diego as the 36th best team in the sport, which is rarified air for a Big West school. That’s just one spot below UConn, the reigning champs. San Diego does everything well, and it shoots (and hits) a lot of 3s. The problem is UCSD’s size. It doesn’t have a regular who is taller than 6-8. Michigan is the rare team with two 7-footers, Vladislav Goldin and Danny Wolf. If UCSD hits a ton of 3s this could be a fun upset, but this was a really unfortunate matchup for a strong mid-major.

Iowa State looked like it could be a Final Four contender, but the last month was a little rough. Injuries affected the Cyclones. It appears Tamin Lipsey (10.8 ppg) will return from injury, but Keshon Gilbert (13.4 ppg) is out for the season via the Des Moines Register. That lowers the Cyclones’ ceiling. Lipscomb has a lot of shooters, which is what you want from a big underdog. If Lipscomb can knock down some of the many 3s it’s going to take, this one could be interesting late.

No. 7 Marquette (-3.5) over No. 10 New Mexico, 7:25 p.m. Friday

If you like guard play, this will be a fun matchup. Marquette’s Kam Jones is one of the best players in the country, a Bob Cousy Award finalist for the trophy that goes to the nation’s best point guard. New Mexico’s Donovan Dent and his 20.6 points per game should get more respect for postseason honors. Marquette won just five of its last 12 games, but there weren’t any bad losses. This isn’t an easy pick between two similar but flawed teams. Marquette might be happy to not see a Big East foe.

Michigan State had a tremendous season. The Spartans were good to bettors too, posting a 22-10-1 mark against the spread via Action Network, one of the best marks in the sport. MSU won’t shoot many 3s, won’t shoot them well, but can score inside and rebound it well. Bryant is one of the few 15 seeds that actually has some decent size. It has the sixth-tallest team in college basketball, according to KenPom.com. The Bulldogs didn’t play a tough schedule and against the two best teams they played, St. John’s and Grand Canyon, they lost by 22 and 46, respectively. There’s no upset concern here, but Bryant might not be a total pushover.

If you’re a casual college basketball fan, you might not recognize Wisconsin. The Badgers regularly scored in the 80s, reaching 100 against Arizona and Iowa. But the Big Ten championship featured old, offensively challenged Wisconsin, as a tired Badgers team scored 53 points in a loss to Michigan. John Tonje, Wisconsin’s All-America candidate, was particularly bad, shooting 1-of-14. Was that a one-off for the Badgers, or a precursor to an offensive slump and an early tournament exit? Playing in Denver won’t help the fatigue. Montana has been playing well lately, though the Big Sky is usually not a good tourney bet (3-12-1 against the spread since 2008, according to Matt Eisenberg’s Tournament Binder). This just seems like too many points, even against a Wisconsin team that can score.

No. 6 BYU (-3.5) over No. 11 VCU, 4:05 p.m. Thursday

It’s never fun when two teams you liked going into the tournament get matched up against each other. Such is the case with this game, as a red-hot BYU team faces VCU, which has a lot of experience and a strong defense. Since Feb. 11, BYU ranks as the fifth-best team in college basketball, according to BartTorvik.com. The Cougars also get a nice travel edge, heading to Denver. It’s a shorter trip and they’re far more accustomed to the elevation. It is hard to pick against VCU, which has the ability to get to the second weekend despite being a No. 11 seed, but BYU has been too good lately. This could end up being the best game of the first round.

No. 8 Mississippi State (-1.5) over No. 9 Baylor, 12:15 p.m. Friday

Baylor’s season started with a 101-63 loss to Gonzaga, and while the Bears ended up being a solid team, that loss set the tone for a fairly disappointing season. Baylor has talent, including projected NBA lottery pick VJ Edgecombe, but the Bears haven’t won more than two games in a row since December. They were simply underwhelming. Mississippi State hasn’t had more than a two-game winning streak since early January either. In fact, it’s 7-11 since a 14-1 start. This is an 8 vs. 9 game between two teams that are very unlikely to challenge Duke in the second round. We’ll take the SEC team but not with much confidence.

Of the more than 350 NCAA Division I men’s basketball teams, which one had the best record against the spread this season? That would be Robert Morris, which went 26-7, according to Action Network. ATS standings aren’t necessarily predictive, but it’s worth noting. Alabama is good enough that it won at Auburn in the regular-season finale. It is going to push the pace, which helps those bettors who are rooting for a blowout. We’ll trust Robert Morris, which has shown it can cover spreads, to keep this from being a total laugher.

No. 7 St. Mary’s (-3.5) over No. 10 Vanderbilt, 4:15 p.m. Friday

One good metric to judge college basketball teams on is road record. We know it’s much easier to win at home, so winning away from a friendly environment is telling. St. Mary’s was 9-1 on the road and Vanderbilt was 3-7. It’s tougher to win on the road in the SEC than the West Coast Conference, but St. Mary’s had a much better record in Quad 1 and Quad 2 games (10-5 for St. Mary’s vs. 9-12 for Vanderbilt). St. Mary’s is simply the better team and should pull away for the cover.

Arizona is going to be a hard team to bet on or against this tournament. Bettors are at the whims of its shooting, which can be inconsistent. But the Wildcats are a good team that was a little unlucky during a 4-5 start but got some great wins in conference play. One key in this game could be Arizona’s 7-foot big man Henri Veesaar, who averaged 9.5 points per game. Akron is one of the shortest teams in the tournament. The Zips are a good team though. They will play fast and shoot a lot of 3s, and if they shoot it OK, it will help keep the game close. Akron dominated the MAC all season. Akron should be good enough to cover a big spread, though it will depend on whether Arizona’s shots are falling.

Liberty, Liberty, Liberty! When looking for a double-digit seed that can win a game, the first thing to check out is if it can shoot. Well, Liberty was second in college basketball in effective field-goal percentage, fueled by being fifth in 3-point percentage via KenPom.com. Oregon is a good team that won eight in a row before losing to Michigan State in the Big Ten tournament. The Ducks also have a huge travel edge, as this game will be in Seattle. That’s an important factor. Still, Liberty’s shooting makes it a good pick and a perfectly reasonable 5 vs. 12 upset selection for your bracket.

High Point will be a popular pick among those looking to brag about the mid-major they identified as an upset special. High Point has won 14 in a row, the second-longest winning streak in college basketball. The issue is the level of competition, as High Point played zero Quad 1 games and just one Quad 2 game. The Big South also hasn’t been great in the NCAA tournament, going 4-10 against the spread since 2008, according to Matt Eisenberg’s Tournament Binder. Purdue is good yet again. But this is a bit funny: After last year’s Zach Edey-led march to the title game, the Boilermakers won’t overwhelm anyone with their size, not even High Point. They hardly ever block shots, which had to be a relief for Boilermakers opponents who were sick of seeing Edey in the paint. In that way it’s as good of a matchup as High Point could have hoped for. Maybe refrain from moving High Point ahead in your bracket, but it can keep this game close.

No. 1 Houston (-28.5) over No. 16 SIU Edwardsville, 2 p.m. Thursday

Houston has become a machine under Kelvin Sampson. It’s tough as always, can destroy anyone on the offensive glass, and now it can shoot too. The Cougars hit 39.8% of their 3-point shots, the fourth-best mark in college basketball. It’s a scary team that has lost once since the end of November. Some 16 seeds can provide some hope to cover a massive spread, but SIUE probably isn’t that team.

Welcome to a 12 over 5 upset you’re going to see in a lot of brackets. McNeese didn’t score any huge upsets this season, but it lost by just eight points at Alabama and by three against Mississippi State. The Cowboys also dominated the Southland Conference. They went 22-1 since mid-December. McNeese also got some NCAA tournament experience last season, though it lost by 21 to Gonzaga. Clemson had a good record, but what does that really say in this year’s down ACC? You might not need the points in this one. McNeese can pull an upset.

By now most college basketball fans know about KenPom.com, which became part of the sport’s lexicon for its efficiency-based rankings. Every year in the NCAA tournament some team has great predictive metrics at KenPom.com, but its resume doesn’t match it, leading to a mismatched seed. This season it’s Gonzaga, which is ninth in KenPom.com but a No. 8 seed. No other team seeded No. 7 or lower is in the top 20. It’s not like oddsmakers don’t understand how that works, which is why Gonzaga is a pretty healthy favorite in a No. 8 vs. 9 game. Georgia has some really good wins over St. John’s, Florida and Kentucky, and it’s not like you’re getting any discount on Gonzaga. There’s some danger in going against a Gonzaga team that is better than its seed, but Georgia won’t be intimidated after playing an SEC schedule.

No. 2 Tennessee (-18.5) over No. 15 Wofford, 6:50 p.m. Thursday

Ah, the Rick Barnes conundrum. Barnes is doing great things at Tennessee, but he has historically struggled to cover the spread in the NCAA tournament. Tennessee did cover last season with a 34-point blowout of St. Peter’s, but it’s still hard to ignore the history. Wofford isn’t a particularly strong 15 seed. It played one game against a top-100 KenPom.com team all season and lost 86-35 to Duke. The Vols really shouldn’t have any trouble in this one, regardless of Barnes’ first-round history.

No. 7 UCLA (-5.5) over No. 10 Utah State, 9:25 p.m. Thursday

UCLA has to travel to Lexington, Kentucky, which means Bruins coach Mick Cronin will probably complain about it. Jokes aside, UCLA is a solid team that doesn’t have a lot of weaknesses. Utah State started 16-1 but lost some steam, going 10-6 the rest of the way. Utah State is a good offensive team but not as strong on defense, so give the Bruins a slight edge.

Troy is a weird matchup. The Trojans will press a lot and play plenty of zone, which makes them a difficult team to prepare for. Troy’s biggest weakness is it turns it over way too often, but Kentucky doesn’t force many turnovers. Troy also has a senior guard in Tayton Conerway, who played very well in the Sun Belt tournament. Kentucky’s Lamont Butler is supposed to play in this game, though his shoulder injury hasn’t gone away. This Kentucky team won’t overwhelm anyone with talent, though it is cohesive on offense and very well coached. If Troy can force some misses — its defense is good at that — then this can be a close game.

Seeing this matchup in the first round would have seemed quite odd before the season started. Kansas was No. 1 in the preseason AP poll and Arkansas was 16th. Both were big disappointments. Kansas is a No. 7 seed, its lowest seed since 2000. Arkansas looked like it wouldn’t make the NCAA tournament after a five-game losing streak in January, though it rallied to get a berth. Both teams had losing records in road games and were five games under .500 in Quad 1 games. It’s impossible to predict what either team will do, so just take the points.No. 11 Drake (+6.5) over No. 6 Missouri, 7:35 p.m. Thursday

You’re going to see a lot of people pick Drake, which went 30-3. The Bulldogs play at a ridiculously slow pace but execute at a high level. Missouri went 2-5 down the stretch, but that can happen when you play in the SEC. Missouri is a pretty good team; those waiting to pick Drake in their bracket probably wanted the Bulldogs to draw a worse No. 6 seed. At KenPom.com, Missouri is the highest ranked No. 6 seed, at 15th overall. This is stubborn pick on a Drake team that has been fantastic all season, though it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Missouri flourish now that it is out of the SEC meat grinder.

Rick Pitino and his Red Storm were one of the best stories in college basketball this season. St. John’s won the Big East and reminded everyone that Pitino is one of the best coaches of all time. Still, Omaha can cover a big spread. It protects the ball pretty well, which is big against St. John’s, and is a good 3-point shooting team. St. John’s is very good, losing four games all season by a combined seven points, but Omaha can do just enough to cover.

Texas Tech is a good team with some injury issues. Forward Darrion Williams and guard Chance McMillian are both dealing with injuries. Each scores 14 points per game. Texas Tech coach Grant McCasland told CBS Sports Network he expects both players to be available for the first-round game, but they might be limited. UNC Wilmington is an experienced team with a good offense. Both of these teams will play slow, which makes it even harder for the favorite to cover a big spread. If Texas Tech was fully healthy this pick might be different, but a slow pace and limitations to the Red Raiders’ second- and third-best scorers give an edge to UNCW.

No. 12 Colorado State (-2.5) over No. 5 Memphis, 2 p.m. Friday

Colorado State is the rare No. 12 seed that’s favored (just the third one since 2005, according to BetMGM data analyst John Ewing), and it’s valid. Memphis is a team that wins games but rarely blows anyone out. That’s a big reason the Tigers’ KenPom.com rating is 51st, the lowest among any single-digit seed in the tournament. The other No. 5 seeds rank 18th, 25th and 31st. Meanwhile, Colorado State has been on a tear lately, winning 10 in a row behind blazing-hot shooting. Colorado State’s Nique Clifford, a 6-foot-6 guard averaging 19 points per game, is a fun watch. There are not many times that a double-digit seed is favored like Colorado State in this game, and it’s usually for very good reason. Ignore the seeds, CSU is the better team.

No. 4 Maryland (-10.5) over No. 13 Grand Canyon, 4:35 p.m. Friday

If you pay attention to college basketball, Grand Canyon has become part of your consciousness. It’s a mid-major but one putting a lot of resources into the basketball program. The Antelopes are in the tournament for the fourth time in five years, and because they’ve been a popular mid-major conversation, it might be tempting to pick them as an upset special. But this Grand Canyon team isn’t as good as last year’s. The Antelopes didn’t win the WAC regular-season title and their efficiency stats are mostly down this season. Meanwhile Maryland, behind star freshman center Derik Queen, is a good Big Ten team without many weaknesses. It will be tempting to take Grand Canyon, but this isn’t the mid-major to pick.

No. 1 Florida (-28.5) over No. 16 Norfolk State, 6:50 p.m. Friday

Norfolk State pulled off one of the greatest NCAA tournament upsets ever, beating Missouri in 2012 as a 15 seed. Norfolk State was a 21-point underdog. That’s some great history but it’s not repeating this year. Florida is fantastic, and it can overwhelm a Norfolk State team that isn’t going to shoot many 3s and turns it over a lot.

UConn has had a weird season. The Huskies looked bad at the Maui Invitational, rebounded to play very well for a stretch, then was good but far from great in the Big East. Part of their struggles came when star freshman Liam McNeeley missed more than a month with a high ankle sprain. Oklahoma is an anomaly, getting a tourney berth with a 6-12 conference record. The Sooners weren’t even shipped to the First Four, a sign of how much respect the committee had for the SEC. OU’s star freshman, Jeremiah Fears, is worth tuning in for. The line just seems a little inflated, accounting for what UConn was the last couple years and not necessarily this season.

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