With The Salary Cap Spiking, The Penguins Have A Huge – And Unique – Opportunity

The NHL and NHLPA made a huge announcement on Friday regarding the NHL’s salary cap for the foreseeable future.

And, no, these aren’t just projections – it’s an agreement.

The NHL and the NHLPA agreed to the following salary cap parameters for the next three seasons:

2025-26:
     – Upper limit: $95.5 million
     – Lower limit: $70.6 million

2026-27:
     – Upper limit: $104 million
     – Lower limit: $76.9 million

2027-28:
     – Upper limit: $113.5 million
     – Lower limit: $83.9 million

With the cap currently sitting at $88 million, this is huge news for the league and its players. There is going to be a $7.5 million increase just for next season, with even heftier increases to follow.

The higher the cap, the more teams can spend – and the more teams will have to spend. With a rising cap comes rising players salaries. But, the truth is this: There will be certain teams who can maximize the benefit of the increase more so than others.

And one of these teams is the Pittsburgh Penguins.

Pittsburgh’s aging core and two consecutive playoff misses – likely going on three – has put them in a precarious position. Captain Sidney Crosby signed a two-year extension that kicks in next season, and GM Kyle Dubas – as well as Fenway Sports Group, Pittsburgh’s majority ownership group – has maintained that the goal is to simultaneously compete and build for the future.

If that remains the goal – and all indications from Dubas point to things staying that way – they have a golden opportunity with the cap increase to achieve both outcomes successfully.

And it all comes down to drafting, development, and asset management – as well as calculated risk.

Assessing the Penguins’ summer situation

Assuming that the Penguins move out all of their pending unrestricted free agent contracts – and accrue mostly draft capital and futures in return – the Penguins figure to have more than $29.5 million in cap space this summer.

Sure, there are other teams that will have significantly more cap space as well. But the reality is that many of these other teams – including the Colorado Avalanche, Carolina Hurricanes, Edmonton Oilers, Florida Panthers, Ottawa Senators, and so on – will have to use a huge chunk of that newfound cap space to extend players on their current roster long-term. And – in most cases, whether these teams are contenders or younger teams on the rise – there are players due for hefty raises.

What distinguishes the Penguins’ situation from others is that they do not have this issue. Aside from, perhaps, a player like Michael Bunting – who won’t command a high cap hit either way – Pittsburgh has no current obligations to rostered players in terms of long-term extensions.

Evgeni Malkin is entering the final year of his current deal, but he will more than likely retire after next season (opening up $6.1 million in additional cap space). They still have a decent core of veterans – such as Bunting, Bryan Rust, Rickard Rakell, Erik Karlsson, and Kris Letang – who can either carry over to the next “phase” of competing or be dealt before that happens. And their contracts now don’t look so hefty when considering what guys of similar ilk are about to be paid.

In addition, Pittsburgh has a lot of prospects who are near NHL-ready – the likes of Ville Koivunen, Vasily Ponomarev, Owen Pickering, Rutger McGroarty, Tristan Broz, and, arguably, even youngsters like Harrison Brunicke and Emil Pieniniemi – and should push for roster spots next season and begin to make an impact at the NHL level.

If this is the case, the Penguins should have some younger talent on their roster for cheap, at least for a few years. They’ll still have some of their good veterans. They already have 10 picks in the 2025 NHL Draft, and they figure to have a handful more once the trade deadline shakes out.

If you’re checking off the boxes – and assuming the Penguins only move out UFA contracts, which may or may not be the case – this is what the Penguins are looking at heading into next season:

   – Good veterans on what may now be considered “bargain” contracts
     – Cheap young talent pushing for roster spots
     – A stocked draft cupboard of, likely, 14-17 picks (which is a lot)
     – $29.5 million in free cap space with little to no extension obligations for 2026-27
     – A cap that will increase by $8.5 million more in 2026-27

So what does this mean? Well, for one – it means that the Penguins have much, much more flexibility than other teams. It also means that they have an opportunity to capitalize on their cap space in a way that most other teams won’t.

What the Penguins need

The reality is that the Penguins need a lot. They’re not just a piece or two away from contending. In order for Dubas to execute the rebuild on-the-fly without mortgaging the future, he needs to be calculated in both his asset management and his risk assessment – as well as pinpoint exactly the pieces this team needs to be contenders again.

He has stated that he wants young players, prospects, and draft picks in that order, and this makes sense – especially considering the fact that the Penguins have more draft picks than any other NHL team over the next three seasons.

They still have Crosby playing at a high level, so if they want to compete within the two years he’s signed for, they would ideally need to acquire these positional needs:

   – Two top-four left defensemen
     – A bottom-pair right defenseman
     – A second-line center
     – A top-six winger
     – A third-line center (depending on the situation with prospect deployment)

That’s not an easy list. Luckily, they have a deep prospect pool at the goaltending position, and they’ll have a veteran in Alex Nedeljkovic next season, assuming he isn’t dealt. They also have some prospects who could, potentially, fill some of those positional holes.

When filling in some of those prospects and their current projected lineup roles, here is a potential lineup for the team as-is next season:

Forwards
     Rakell-Crosby-Rust
     Bunting-Malkin-Koivunen
     Broz-Ponomarev-McGroarty
     Kevin Hayes/Cody Glass (RFA)-Blake Lizotte-Noel Acciari/Philip Tomasino (RFA)

Defensemen
     Pickering-Letang
     Ryan Graves-Erik Karlsson
     Ryan Shea/Pieniniemi-Jack St. Ivany/Brunicke

Goaltenders
     Alex Nedeljkovic, Joel Blomqvist

If the Penguins plan to be semi-competitive next season, that lineup is still not good enough. And banking on Brunicke, 18, and Pieniniemi, 19 – who are still playing junior hockey – is not the wisest gamble, even if they have both impressed this season and seem to be a bit ahead of schedule (Brunicke impressed to the point of nearly earning a nine-game trial run following an impressive training camp).

Even factoring in prospects, the Penguins would, at minimum, need to grab a top-pairing left defenseman and a top-six player to be able to compete next season.

But that’s the big question: Can they overturn their roster enough to compete in 2025-26?

What the Penguins could – and should – do this summer

Given the holes in their lineup, even if most of the Penguins’ prospects do pan out next season – and they don’t trade veterans like Rakell, Karlsson, and Nedeljkovic – the 2025-26 season likely isn’t going to be the “big year” for the Penguins. With a very deep draft in 2026, it might serve the Penguins best not to pull all stops this summer.

However, that doesn’t mean they can’t pull any stops. In fact, it might make sense to take some calculated risk in free agency and in the trade market.

As far as the trade market, there may be some value there – and the Penguins have expendable draft capital. Assuming they should be able to acquire a second-round pick for defenseman Marcus Pettersson this season – and a few more mid-round picks for other UFAs in Matt Grzlecyk, Drew O’Connor, and Anthony Beauvillier, and maybe a late-rounder for Jesse Puljujarvi – they’ll have even more picks to spare:

Since the 2025 Draft isn’t all that deep, it’s certainly conceivable that Dubas will be willing to part with some assets to acquire younger talent. He may not be willing to sacrifice a first-rounder this season depending on the Penguins’ draft positioning – and that does matter – but should he try to acquire a younger player with term, he may be able to accomplish that with a second- and a third-rounder.

A first-rounder will be required for high-end young players, and unless there is a young talent being dangled that Dubas can’t pass on, that is unlikely to happen. But he may be able to get someone like Los Angeles Kings forward Alex Turcotte or right defenseman Jordan Spence for a second, third, or both.

Or, maybe someone like Ottawa Senators forward Shane Pinto or Winnipeg Jets forward Cole Perfetti, if the right package can be created with those assets. Perhaps even Anaheim Ducks forward Trevor Zegras, whose inconsistency and injury history have hampered his value.

Of course, those trades aren’t necessarily ones that have to happen this summer. The Penguins are looking for younger players, yes, but there is some flexibility with the trade market. The draw would be selling off some of those excess 2025 mid-round picks now instead of for a 2026 draft that’s much deeper.

Even if the trade market isn’t a viable option this summer, the really interesting part of the equation lies in free agency. And it is certainly a top-heavy class.

Some of these names won’t make it to free agency and are likely to extend somewhere. However, some of them will. Here are a few notable under-30 pending UFAs:

   – RW Mikko Rantanen (28)
     – RW Mitch Marner (27) 
     – D Aaron Ekblad (28)
     – D Jakob Chychrun (26)
     – RW Brock Boeser (27)
     – D Vladislav Gavrikov (29)
     – LW Nikolaj Ehlers (28)
     – C/LW Ryan Donato (28)
     – D Neal Pionk (29)

Now, let’s state a few obvious things.

First of all – again – many of these players are likely to re-sign. Ekblad and Chychrun are nearly givens to re-sign with the Florida Panthers and Washington Capitals, respectively. Many others – like Rantanen, Marner, and Ehlers – are situation- and dollars-dependent. And some – like Boeser – are nearly givens to be gone. The one large caveat is that these guys now know they can get a payday on the open market.

The other big thing here is that the Penguins aren’t exactly a bona fide free agent destination anymore. With their current trajectory and aging roster, the allure of playing with Crosby for just a few years isn’t as bright as it was several years ago.

In other words, the Penguins would likely have to overpay a bit, and Dubas would have to sell the “rebuild on-the-fly” plan to any potential free agent target. So, it wouldn’t be easy to lure big names to Pittsburgh, and – let’s be honest – a free agent splash is only worth it for the Penguins if they do get the biggest fish and that “big fish” is signed long-term to see the retool through to the other side.

So, really – unless guys are willing to take short-term deals, which is unlikely – that leaves Rantanen, Marner, and Ehlers as targets to pursue.

Some may be shaking their heads, saying that allocating hefty dollars to the biggest fish isn’t in their best interest given their situation. And, again, it’s valid to assume that guys like that simply would not want to come to Pittsburgh, since a lot has to go right for them to contend in a few years.

But think about it this way: If the Penguins, hypothetically, were able to sign someone like Marner for eight years, $14 million, that fills a big hole in their top six for years. It’s someone who could accelerate their retool on-the-fly, and they would be able to sign a high-caliber free agent like Marner for cheaper this offseason than they would be able to sign someone of similar caliber later on down the line.

Because, let’s face it – player salaries are only going to continue to rise in the coming years. If the Penguins can take advantage of a good, cheap-as-it-will-be free agent market to make a bigger splash now, they should.

In addition, the Penguins would still have more than $14 million in cap space to fill out the rest of their roster with a mix of cheap young talent and a few cap dumps that they can use to acquire more assets for a deep 2026 draft. Conceivably – since the 2026 draft is deep – they should be able to draft a core piece of their future anywhere in the first round.

And – depending on cap dumps they take on and whether or not they move out someone like Rakell – they may be able to acquire another first-round pick in 2026, making the chances even greater that they can get core talent quicker than expected.

Then, with the cap going up even higher in the summer of 2026, they can extend some of their young, pending-RFA players like McGroarty, Koivunen, etc., while also looking to the trade market to acquire a legitimate young, talented center or defenseman – if they are willing to leverage some excess 2026 capital.

Also, there’s this: Full-on rebuilds in this day and age are certainly no guarantee.

Because of the draft lottery, tanking is certainly no guarantee, either – especially if a team is solely tanking for a generational talent like Gavin McKenna, the ultimate prize in the 2026 draft. If a team tanks and doesn’t get a player like McKenna, is the tank worth it? How many years of “tanking” is considered “worth it” before it becomes perpetual?

“Success” is a subjective term in this league. And more and more teams are finding the value in attempting a rebuild on-the-fly because they see the worth in competing in the near-future and simultaneously keeping their cupboard stocked. To many teams, this is a better option rather than facing the possibility of a decade of futility if their long-term rebuild doesn’t go as planned.

Ask teams like Detroit, Chicago, Buffalo, and even Edmonton – who have yet to win a Cup – how their long-term rebuilds have panned out.

If there is a possibility for success in short-term rebuilds, organizations are going to take that chance now. And the Penguins have a real shot at pulling that off if they push the right buttons. Pushing the right buttons – and hitting a streak of luck – is required for every team, regardless of whether they’re rebuilding short-term or long-term. A lot has to go right in either situation.

So, trying to go big for a guy like Marner, Ehlers, or Rantanen shouldn’t set the Penguins back all that much. They can still go “halfway” and potentially have a decent draft position in 2026, they can still acquire more assets, and they wouldn’t have to sacrifice any assets for an elite core player who can help the team win when the roster flips younger and better in 2026-27.

Is it likely that a big fish would make the swim over to Pittsburgh, a team with aspirations of pulling off a short- and long-term rebuild simultaneously? No.

But, it’s certainly worth trying for. It could be the move that sets the table for the Penguins to get Crosby one more legitimate run at a Stanley Cup without mortgaging the future in a significant way.