After a .500 week last week, we were back on the board with seven of the top 10 defenses correctly predicted again, including all five of the top five plays finishing in the top 10. The Broncos, Lions, and Steelers continue to emerge as defenses that we can play in almost any matchup because their floor is so high, and the Texans are starting to emerge as the feisty defense I expected them to be in the preseason, scoring at least nine fantasy points in their last three weeks.
It was interesting to note that only three defenses scored in the double-digits according to FantasyPros scoring this weekend, so it was a down weekend, and I kind of expect the same to happen this upcoming week. No one defense really stands out in my BOD formula this week, and we have a lot of fine but not great defenses in good matchups and a lot of good defenses in not-great matchups. It could be a week to just lean on safety.
I also should mention my regular philosophy against “set-it-and-forget-it” defenses. We love to give ourselves less work to do, so we find a good defense early on and then say we won’t look to add a defense again. That’s been the case recently with Vikings, who were an elite defense to start the season and also had their bye. However, the Vikings were exposed a little bit this past weekend. This is a good defense, but they lost a lot of pieces in the offseason and some of that loss of talent has shown up in the last few weeks. Over the last month, the Vikings are 8th in turnover rate but 16th in pass rush productivity grade, 16th in opponent’s scoring rate, 19th in EPA allowed per play, and 24th in sacks. I still believe they’re a good defense, but I’m not sure they’re the elite unit we thought they were a few weeks ago.
Don’t miss episodes of Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry and Rotoworld Football Show all season long for the latest player news, waiver wire help, start/sit advice, and much more.
As a final reminder, what you’ll get each week in this article is not just my rankings but also my thoughts on why teams are ranked how they are. Tier One will the my “elite” plays of the week. Tier Two will be plays that I consider strong, while Tier Three will almost always be borderline top-10 plays. Those are either good defenses in bad matchups or mediocre defenses in good matchups. Tier Four will be deep-league targets, and Tier Five will be defenses that nobody should be playing that particular week.
Each week, I’ll keep track of how many Top-10 defenses I correctly called, so we can all see how accurate the BOD (Best Overall Defense) rankings are.
2024 SEASON SUCCESS RATE (Percentage of top 10 defenses correctly predicted)
WEEK 8: 7-3
SEASON-LONG: 45-35 (56.2%)
BOD Formula and Philosophy
If you’ve read my earlier articles then you know that I value defenses that get pressure on the quarterback and create turnover opportunities, which is likely what most people value. However, that means I look at underlying metrics and try to value the quality of the defense over simply saying, “Who is playing a bad offense?” While opponents factor into my rankings, I don’t want to elevate a bad or mediocre defense simply because of a matchup.
To do that, I’ve utilized the following formula:
((PFF PASS RUSH PRODUCTION x 2) + FORCED INCOMPLETE RATE + TACKLES FOR LOSS/GAME + (TURNOVER RATE x 2))
DIVIDED BY
(EPA RATE ALLOWED + OPPONENT SCORING RATE X 1.5)
With all of that out of the way, how do these defenses rank for Week 9?
Yes, there are five defenses in my Tier One this week. My weekly rankings have all of these teams ranked closely together, and when you look at the matchups and the two elite defenses that are on bye, I really don’t think there is a clear top option this week.
Who would have thought the Commanders would be a tier-one defense this year, but here we are. They rank 4th in pass rush productivity grade, 8th in tackles for a loss or no gain per game, and 11th in forced incompletion rate. They will give up points and they do allow big plays, but the Giants aren’t an offense that hits many home runs and they should be without Tyrone Tracy Jr. next week since the rookie is in concussion protocol after Monday night’s game. The Giants also have a lot of concerns on their offensive line after the injury to Andrew Thomas, so the Commanders’ pass rush production should be enough to give them a strong performance in Week 9.
The Browns are certainly a better offense with Jameis Winston under center than Deshaun Watson, but we also know that Watson will make poor decisions against good defenses. Even in that win over Baltimore this weekend, Winston should have had two or three interceptions, but the Ravens’ defensive backs just dropped the ball. The Chargers rank 1st in opponent scoring rate and 10th in turnover rate, so they’re a solid but not extraordinary defense in a solid but not extraordinary matchup. That might not make for a tier-one defense in most weeks, but I think it does in this one.
The Chiefs are averaging 7.7 fantasy points per game over the last month, so despite being a tremendous real-life defense, that hasn’t carried over to huge fantasy performance. However, the Chiefs will get a Bucs offense that will be without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, so I think it’s a matchup they can take advantage of. They rank 3rd in explosive play rate allowed, 12th in PFF’s Pass Rush Production Grade, 12th in forced incompletion rate, and 12th in opponent’s scoring rate so another defense that’s not extraordinary but good enough in a good enough matchup.
We keep waiting for the Jets’ offense to show up in the way we expected them to before the season, but it just may never happen. Aaron Rodgers is certainly past his peak, and Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson are talented receivers, but they play in an offense that isn’t overly creative and wants to control the block with the ball on the ground. The biggest issue may be an offensive line that seems to consistently fail to hold up in protection, which could be a problem against a Texans defense that ranks 7th in pass rush production grade and third in sacks. The Texans are also 2nd in forced incompletion rate, 10th in opponent’s scoring rate, and 13th in turnover rate, so their defense has been coming on a bit of late, and they should be in for another solid week against this fledgling Jets offense.
As I mentioned above, the Vikings are perhaps not as elite a unit as we thought in the first few weeks of the season. However, that doesn’t mean they’re a bad defense. They’re a well-coached unit with the third-best turnover rate in the NFL and the fourth-best opponent’s scoring rate. They’ll be facing a Colts offense that is so hard to figure out. On one hand, the Colts have some dynamic weapons on offense and can hit some big plays. On the other hand, Anthony Richardson is one of the least efficient quarterbacks in all of football and could be overwhelmed by Brian Flores’ scheme. At this point, I just feel like the Vikings are a safe option this week and that might be enough.
The Saints’ defense has really slipped of late and plummeted down my BOD rankings, but it’s hard to turn away from a matchup against the Panthers with Bryce Young likely starting at quarterback again. I do expect Diontae Johnson back in the fold as the Panthers look to show that he’s healthy before trading him, and it’s possible the same will happen for Adam Thielen, who can be activated off the IR and also is being floated in trade rumors. This Saints defense ranks 21st in pass rush production grade and 22nd in opponent’s scoring rate, but they are 8th in turnovers, so there will be some fantasy goodness here, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they disappointed a bit.
At this point, how do you sit the Lions defense? They might be the most complete football team in the league, and that’s even without Aidan Hutchinson and Kyle Peko. They’re 2nd in turnover rate, 5th in forced incompletion rate, and 7th in opponent’s scoring rate. Plus, they have a strong special teams unit that’s a threat to score a touchdown every week. I don’t love the matchup against the Packers, but Jordan Love was injured in Week 8 and wasn’t able to finish the game. If Malik Willis starts, the Packers are going to be very run-heavy, and even if Love does play, I would assume he’s not at 100%, which is a slight boost for the Lions’ defense.
The Rams have been a pretty solid fantasy defense of late, averaging 11 fantasy points per game over the last month. They rank 6th in pass rush production grade behind a revamped defensive line led by rookie Jared Verse, and they also rank 4th in explosive play rate allowed and 16th in turnover rate, so they’re a fringe top 10 defense right now and get a matchup against a Seahawks team that, even with DK Metcalf in the lineup, gives up the 9th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses. Their offensive line just got manhandled by the Bills on Sunday, and so I think this Rams defense could be a feisty play this weekend.
The Bears and Broncos are two defenses in the top five of my season-long rankings who find themselves in tougher matchups this week. The Cardinals are certainly the easiest of the two, but they give up the 10th-fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses while the Ravens give up the fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses in the league. The talent on the Bears and Broncos’ defenses makes them playable, and they can hit a big play touchdown and turn their whole week around, but the path to upside is far more limited for them this week given their matchups.
I think people are going to want to rank the Eagles higher because they just handled the Bengals offense and are now getting a banged-up Jacksonville team. However, the Jaguars are 18th in fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses, so they’re a below-average matchup, and recent reports have suggested that both Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Etienne will play this weekend. Losing Christian Kirk is certainly impactful, and I assumed the Jaguars allowed the 8th-most fantasy points to defenses when I calculated their ranking this week; however, Kirk wasn’t doing a whole lot so far, and having BTJ on the field is far more important. I think the Eagles are a fine play this week, but I am not as high on them as I assume others will be.
The Bills have been a solid defense so far this year despite some big injuries on the defensive side of the ball, and it will be crucial for them to get Terrel Bernard back this week because their linebacker corps can’t afford to be down their two best players when taking on a full strength Miami offense. I understand that the Dolphins lost to the Cardinals on Sunday, but having Tua Tagovailoa back with Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, DeVon Achane, and Raheem Mostert makes the Dolphins a threat to score on every possession. Miami is getting into a situation where every game is a “must-win” if they want to make the playoffs, so I expect them to come out with a chip on their shoulder in Buffalo this weekend.
The Bengals and Patriots are two below-average defenses getting good matchups this week. The Bengals will face a Raiders team that gives up the 2nd-most fantasy points to opposing defenses while the Patriots will face a Titans offense that gives up the most fantasy points to opposing defenses. I do expect Mason Rudolph to play for the Titans, and he showed the ability to move the ball through the air this weekend. While Deandre Hopkins is gone, Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd are still solid receivers, so I think the Titans can at least be competitive against a weak Patriots team. I also think the Raiders can remain competitive against the Bengals. Keep in mind that, even without Davante Adams, the Raiders held the Chiefs’ defense to eight fantasy points, and the Chiefs have been a much better unit than the Bengals. That means Cincinnati might be looking at six or seven points this week, and that’s not bad but it’s kind of a fringe play in 12-team leagues.
Yes, I know the Texans will be without Stefon Diggs and Nico Collins. I factored that into my rankings, assuming the Texans might be the 10th-worst team offense against fantasy defenses and this is still as high as I could get the Jets defense. Their pass rush has been severely impacted by injuries and under-performance, so I’m not sure they’re in the best position to take advantage of the Texans’ offensive line issues. The Jets also rank 18th in opponent’s scoring rate, 24th in turnover rate, and 27th in explosive play rate allowed, so Joe Mixon could rip off huge chunk runs at will against them this weekend.
I really like the Packers’ defense, and they’re talented enough to keep in your lineup if you’re in a deep league that doesn’t have many options on the wire, but it’s hard to trust any defense against this Lions’ offense right now.
It may surprise you to see the Ravens down here, but they’ve been a bad defense, and the Broncos are a bad matchup. Bo Nix has started to figure things out and, as my colleague Pat Daughtery said on the Week 8 Recap show, Nix may not make many big plays but he also isn’t making big mistakes. As a result, the Broncos give up the 16th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses, so they are smack dab in the middle of the pack as an average matchup. We just saw the Ravens’ defense fall flat against the Browns in a plus matchup, so the same could happen here too.
The Titans are in a good matchup against the Patriots, but they have been a really bad defense for fantasy purposes, and the Giants have been a good defenses for fantasy purposes, thanks to their elite pass rush, but they face a Commanders’ offense that gives up the 2nd-fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses.
Tier 5 each week will be defenses that I don’t think anybody should play outside of the deepest formats.
