Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
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2025 Oscars Predictions:
Best Supporting Actor
Denzel Washington plays Macrinus in Gladiator II from Paramount Pictures.
Cuba Scott
Weekly Commentary (Updated Oct. 10, 2024): We have a strong Guy in the race!
Guy Pearce’s portrayal of the sinister and calculated Harrison in Brady Corbet’s historical epic, “The Brutalist,” is gaining momentum, sparking comparisons to iconic roles such as Philip Seymour Hoffman’s intense performance in “The Master” (2012) and Josh Brolin’s explosive portrayal of a volatile politician in “Milk” (2008). Pearce delivers a masterclass in restrained menace, and this performance could push him into the spotlight for the first time this awards season.
Pearce, who has often been overlooked despite powerful performances in films like Curtis Hanson’s masterful noir “L.A. Confidential” (1997) and Christopher Nolan’s mind-bending “Memento” (2001), now stands a chance to seize the moment. Along with his work in two previous best picture winners — “The Hurt Locker” (2009) and “The King’s Speech” (2010) — Pearce’s career has been marked by excellence, even if it hasn’t been recognized. However, the supporting actor category has yet to reveal an obvious frontrunner, which could work in his favor. With the critical acclaim surrounding “Brutalist,” Pearce might follow the same path as actors like Sam Rockwell in “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Jared Leto in “Dallas Buyers Club,” or Tim Robbins in “Mystic River” — all actors who rode the wave of a strong lead performance to their own Oscar victory. It doesn’t hurt that his co-star, Adrien Brody, fits that bill.
Another strong contender in the supporting actor race is Kieran Culkin, whose spirited and dynamic turn in Jesse Eisenberg’s emotional drama, “A Real Pain,” has drawn significant attention since its debut at Sundance. Culkin plays the overly expressive and blunt Benji, a role getting a massive push from Searchlight Pictures and what could make him a critical darling. This performance comes just two years after Culkin took home his first Emmy for “Succession,” and the right momentum, it could lead to his first Oscar nod.
Veteran actor John Turturro, long overlooked for an Oscar nomination despite remarkable performances in films like “Quiz Show” (1994), is in the race with his role in “The Room Next Door.” In Pedro Almodovar’s melodrama, Turturro plays Damian, a passionate advocate for climate change caught in a love triangle with characters portrayed by Julianne Moore and Tilda Swinton. His climactic scene near the film’s conclusion could be when he finally gets his name written on multiple ballots.
And then, there’s the legendary performer Denzel Washington. Along with producing the sensational drama “The Piano Lesson,” his villainous turn in Ridley Scott’s highly anticipated sequel, “Gladiator II,” is poised to shake up the race. Washington, a two-time Oscar winner for “Glory” and “Training Day,” has come close to adding a third trophy before with his searing performance in “Fences” (2016). “Gladiator 2” could be his most substantial bid yet to join an elite club of three-time Oscar-winning men, including Daniel Day-Lewis, Jack Nicholson, and Walter Brennan. Who would object to that?
This year’s supporting actor category is full of potential, and it’s anyone’s guess who will ultimately get nominated (and win) the golden statuette. Check out the updated rankings below.
Read: You can see all Academy Award predictions in all 23 categories on one page on the Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars.
The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. The full rankings are below. All movie listings, titles, and distributors are not final and are subject to change.
** denotes the performer could be campaigned in lead or supporting, and/or the film could open in 2025.
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Image Credit: ©Searchlight Pictures/Courtesy Everett Collection And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank Performer & Film 1 Denzel Washington — “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) 2 Guy Pearce — “The Brutalist” (A24) 3 Kieran Culkin — “A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures) 4 Stanley Tucci — “Conclave” (Focus Features) 5 John Turturro — “The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics) Oscars: Best Actor in a Supporting Role (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) -
Image Credit: Courtesy Everett Collection Next in Line
Rank Performer & Film 6 Edward Norton — “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures) 7 John Magaro — “September 5” (Paramount Pictures) 8 Peter Sarsgaard — “September 5” (Paramount Pictures) 9 Gabriel LaBelle — “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures) ** 10 Clarence Maclin — “Sing Sing” (A24) Oscars: Best Actor in a Supporting Role (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) -
Image Credit: ©Sony Pictures/Courtesy Everett Collection Other Contenders
Rank Performer & Film 11 Lamorne Morris — “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures) 12 Jeremy Strong — “The Apprentice” (Briarcliff Entertainment) 13 Yura Borisov — “Anora” (Neon) 14 Ray Fisher — “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix) 15 Selton Mello — “I’m Still Here” (Sony Pictures Classics) 16 Samuel L. Jackson — “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix) 17 Brian Tyree Henry — “The Fire Inside” (Amazon MGM) 18 Josh O’Connor — “Challengers” (Amazon MGM) 19 Jason Schwartzman — “Queer” (A24) 20 Mark Eydelshteyn — “Anora” (Neon) Oscars: Best Actor in a Supporting Role (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) -
Image Credit: Philippe Antonello/Focus Feature Also In Contention
Rank Performer & Film 21 John Lithgow — “Conclave” (Focus Features) 22 Ben Chaplin — “September 5” (Paramount Pictures) 23 Tommy Dewey — “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures) 24 Tom Hardy — “The Bikeriders” (Focus Features) 25 Pedro Pascal — “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) 26 Jay O. Sanders — “His Three Daughters” (Netflix) 27 Drew Starkey — “Queer” (A24) 28 Mike Faist — “Challengers” (Amazon MGM) 29 Carlos Diehz — “Conclave” (Focus Features) 30 Bill Skarsgård — “Nosferatu” (Focus Features) Oscars: Best Actor in a Supporting Role (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) -
Eligible Performers (Best Supporting Actor)
Image Credit: Sony Pictures ** This list is incomplete and not yet finalized. Not all films have distribution or release dates. All are subject to change.
- Yura Borisov — “Anora” (Neon)
- Mark Eydelshteyn — “Anora” (Neon)
- Jeremy Strong — “The Apprentice” (Briarcliff Entertainment)
- Antonio Banderas — “Babygirl” (A24)
- Harris Dickinson — “Babygirl” (A24)
- Jean Reno — “Babygirl” (A24)
- Tom Hardy — “The Bikeriders” (Focus Features) **
- Barry Keoghan — “Bird” (Mubi) **
- Franz Rogowski — “Bird” (Mubi) **
- Harris Dickinson — “Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
- Elliott Heffernan — “Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
- Stephen Graham — “Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
- Alessandro Nivola — “The Brutalist” (A24)
- Guy Pearce — “The Brutalist” (A24)
- Mike Faist — “Challengers” (Amazon MGM)
- Josh O’Connor — “Challengers” (Amazon MGM)
- Wagner Moura — “Civil War” (A24)
- Jesse Plemons — “Civil War” (A24)
- Boyd Holbrook — “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Edward Norton — “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
- John Lithgow — “Conclave” (Focus Features)
- Stanley Tucci — “Conclave” (Focus Features)
- Sean Penn — “Daddio” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Hugh Jackman — “Deadpool & Wolverine” (Marvel Studios)
- Wesley Snipes — “Deadpool & Wolverine” (Marvel Studios)
- Channing Tatum — “Deadpool & Wolverine” (Marvel Studios)
- Adam Pearson — “A Different Man” (A24)
- Javier Bardem — “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
- Josh Brolin — “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
- Austin Butler — “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
- Christopher Walken — “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
- Édgar Ramírez — “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
- Michael Shannon — “The End” (Neon) **
- Shea Whigham — “Fancy Dance” (Apple Original Films)
- Brian Tyree Henry — “The Fire Inside” (Amazon MGM)
- Jude Law — “Firebrand” (Roadside Attractions)
- Chris Hemsworth — “Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga” (Warner Bros.)
- Pedro Pascal — “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
- Joseph Quinn — “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
- Denzel Washington — “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
- David Webber — “Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street)
- Paul Bettany — “Here” (Sony Pictures)
- Jovan Adepo — “His Three Daughters” (Netflix)
- Jay O. Sanders — “His Three Daughters” (Netflix)
- Michael Angarano — “Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter One” (Warner Bros.)
- Selton Mello — “I’m Still Here” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Ryan Reynolds — “IF” (Paramount Pictures)
- Brendan Gleeson — “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.)
- Harry Lawtey — “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.)
- J.K. Simmons — “Juror No. 2” (Warner Bros.)
- Kiefer Sutherland — “Juror No. 2” (Warner Bros.)
- Joe Alwyn — “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Mamoudou Athie — “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Willem Dafoe — “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Dave Bautista — “The Last Showgirl” (Roadside Attractions)
- Andy Samberg — “Lee” (Roadside Attractions)
- Pierfrancesco Favino — “Maria” (Netflix)
- Kodi Smit-McPhee — “Maria” (Netflix)
- Giancarlo Esposito — “Megalopolis” (Lionsgate)
- Shia LaBeouf — “Megalopolis” (Lionsgate)
- Jon Voight — “Megalopolis” (Lionsgate)
- Daveed Diggs — “Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM/Orion)
- Scott McNairy — “Nightbitch” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Willem Dafoe — “Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
- Bill Skarsgård — “Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
- Aaron Taylor-Johnson — “Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
- Nicholas Hoult — “The Order” (Vertical Entertainment)
- Paapa Essiedu — “The Outrun” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Gary Oldman — “Parthenope” (A24)
- Ray Fisher — “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)
- Corey Hawkins — “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)
- Samuel L. Jackson — “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)
- Michael Potts — “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)
- Jason Schwartzman — “Queer” (A24)
- Drew Starkey — “Queer” (A24)
- Kieran Culkin — “A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
- John Turturro — “The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Nicholas Braun — “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)
- Tommy Dewey — “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)
- Willem Dafoe — “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)
- Taylor Gray — “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)
- Cooper Hoffman — “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)
- Gabriel LaBelle — “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures) **
- Lamorne Morris — “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)
- Dylan O’Brien — “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)
- J.K. Simmons — “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)
- Cory Michael Smith — “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)
- Matt Wood — “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)
- Ben Chaplin — “September 5” (Paramount Pictures)
- John Magaro — “September 5” (Paramount Pictures)
- Peter Sarsgaard — “September 5” (Paramount Pictures)
- Clarence Maclin — “Sing Sing” (A24)
- Paul Raci — “Sing Sing” (A24)
- Jim Carrey — “Sonic the Hedgehog 3” (Paramount Pictures)
- Dennis Quaid — “The Substance” (Mubi)
- Richard Roundtree — “Thelma” (Magnolia Pictures)
- Jonathan Bailey — “Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
- Jeff Goldblum — “Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
- Pedro Pascal — “The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)
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More Information (Oscars: Best Supporting Actor)
Image Credit: Rich Polk for Variety 2024 category winner: Robert Downey Jr. — “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
2024-2025 Oscars Calendar and Timeline – Full awards season calendar here
- Eligibility period: Jan. 1, 2024 – Dec. 31, 2024
- General entry, best picture, RAISE submission deadline: Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024
- Governors Awards: Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024
- Preliminary voting begins Monday, Dec. 9, 2024, at 9 a.m. PT.
- Preliminary voting ends Friday, Dec. 13, 2024, at 5 p.m. PT.
- Oscar Shortlists Announcement: Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2024
- Eligibility period ends: Tuesday, Dec. 31, 2024
- Nominations voting begins Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT.
- Nominations voting ends Sunday, Jan. 12, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT.
- Oscar Nominations Announcement: Friday, Jan. 17, 2025
- Oscar Nominees Luncheon: Monday, Feb. 10, 2025
- Final voting begins Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT
- Final voting ends: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT
- Scientific and Technical Awards: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025
- 97th Oscars: Sunday, March 2, 2025
Oscars Prediction Categories
2024 Oscars Predictions (Variety Awards Circuit) About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.
